COVID-19 Insights: United States Daily Case Growth Slowing, But Not Yet Peaked

By: Wesley Legg & Scott David

United States Daily Case Growth Slowing, But Not Yet Peaked
U.S. daily cases continue to climb, but the reproduction rate is slowing. We still hope to see daily cases peak on or before April 6th. The President and the COVID 19 Task Force say we’ll see peak daily deaths in the next couple weeks. This projection supports our belief that daily cases will peak soon. Over 1.1 million people have now been tested with an average of ~104K tests per day for the last week. According to The COVID Tracking Project, daily test volume has flattened, however the % of tests with a positive result continues to increase. Possible explanations for this are (1) some labs are only reporting positive results, and/or (2) testing remains limited, especially in hot spots like Michigan, New Jersey or California. The latter is concerning and could mean the infection rate is much higher. It might also suggest peak daily cases are further away than expected.

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